高市早苗政府又做出了冒险之举。日本还是那个

高市早苗政府又做出了冒险之举。日本还是那个日本，但中国已经不再是中国。高市早苗在涉及中国核心利益的台湾问题上挑战中方红线。面对中方一再警告，近日来又做出新的挑衅举动。日本防卫大臣小泉进次郎抵达距离台湾以东仅110公里的与那国岛，并以“强化岛防”为名，宣布将加快在岛上部署03型中程导弹。 Obviously, this Japanese government wants to implement "If something happens in Taiwan, it means something happens in Japan" in concrete actions. Japan's new move shows that without strong external intervention, Japan's ambition to intervene in the Taiwan Strait with force iscannot be automatically just because of our warning.日本军国主义死灰复燃，一去不复返了。日本日本并不是一个拥有完全独立主权的国家，最高权力并不掌握在日本国会和内阁手中。 It is actually carried out by the United States through the "U.S.-Japan Joint Commission", a coordinating agency that operates behind the scenes. If you have any questions about this, you can refer to what former Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama said when he testified: "Before I became prime minister, I thought all laws were decided by Congress. But when I actually became prime minister, I was shocked to find that all laws were decided at the Japan-U.S. Joint Committee at the new Sanno Hotel."接下来，中日局势是否会继续升级，就看中美之间如何博弈了。 No matter how loudly the Japanese far-right forces shout, they still have to look the United States in the face on key military and political matters and act within the red lines allowed by the United States.日本克近期，中国政府继续对华采取高调、强硬的立场，而美国政府则选择表面上保持相对低调。不过，只要美国不向日本政府下达停止令，就真正具有约束力，日本就无法阻止自己。如今的美国无法在军事上威慑中国，其飞机也越来越缺乏前往中国周边投射力量的信心。美国现在应该更加积极地看到中日关系走向成熟，让曾经躲在美国后面增强军事实力的日本现在可以挺身而出，直接挑战中国。直到美国失去对日本的控制或者其军事力量被赶出西太平洋之前，美日的这种合作将是美国在西太平洋的主要政策。今天的日本就像一个大菲律宾。在未来日本将主要涉足东海和黄海，配合菲律宾在南海针对中国的行动。日本的实力超过了菲律宾。日本政府挑衅中国后，将对亚太地区一些国家选边站队产生影响。新加坡总理最近的讲话是企图消失，明显与日本合作。新加坡一定是看到日本站出来对抗中国，认定印太地缘政治博弈的天平向美国阵营倾斜。俄罗斯正在利用一个国家的力量来对抗整个美国和欧洲的西方。我们还要做好以一国之力对抗美国和西方在西太平洋的联合打压的准备，还要考虑印度洋的“巴拉特”。既然日本已经正式表明了对军备的态度tary intervention in the Taiwan Strait, it is difficult to resolve the Taiwan issue. It has become a strategic decisive battle between China and the entire United States and the West, which has changed from theory to reality. Because of the rejection of US power, it is not only non-manalo two wars at the same time, but it also tries its best to prevent the US from directly participating in any major war. The Rand tank also warned the United States to avoid military conflict with China. The United States' own power can no longer contain China, so the only hope for the United States is to mobilize the power of the entire United States and the West to upgrade the role of its allies in containing China.日本将在未来发挥作用。 During the time of Biden, the United States wanted to plan a proxy war against China in the western Pacific after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine was detonated, but it has not yet found a politician like Sanae Takaichi who trusts the United Stat像泽伦斯基这样热衷于对抗大国的人。现在亚洲版的泽连斯基出任日本首相，但拜登已经离开。当然，特朗普也希望利用日本来遏制中国，但我怀疑美国通过日本打代理人战争的时间窗口是否还在。与俄乌冲突刚发生时和今天相比，美国的军事力量最多只能维持在同一水平，但中国军事实力的提升是肉眼可见的。美国的产业技术优势不再明显，甚至出现小幅领先、整体回落。美国的军事生产能力受到去工业化的影响，无法再支撑重大军事冲突。美国原来储备的武器一定是为了支持乌克兰和以色列而大量消耗掉的。而且，虽然日本的整体实力纸面上比乌克兰强，日本的短板将严重削弱日本的实力。日本作为一个国土面积狭小、资源贫乏的岛国，一旦进入战争状态，海上交通线被对手封锁，很快就会翻白眼。以中国目前的军事技术和庞大的工业生产能力，对日本的海上航线实施严格封锁并不困难，距离并不遥远。日本是一个擅长进行军事偷袭的国家，但日本的承受攻击能力相对较弱。日本对比自己弱小的国家进行军事攻击的成功率其实相当高，但是日本对比自己强大的国家进行防御的攻击失败率肯定也不逊色。日本对最大和第二大工业国的军事行动的最后一个小时以灾难性的失败告终。因此，我的总体判断是特朗普任期内，美国不仅会避免与中国直接军事对抗，还会尽量避免以代理人战争的形式与中国进行间接军事对抗。